The Bank of England's and other institutions' short-term macroeconomic estimates of what would happen immediately following the Brexit referendum were far too negative. The evaluations predicted that the referendum outcomes would cause more market uncertainty and lower consumer confidence than they did. Short-term macroeconomic projections are often seen as inaccurate, according to a lot of economists, because they are something that banks do rather than academic economists. Short-term economic forecasts have been likened to weather forecasts, while long-term economic forecasts have been compared to climate forecasts: long-term forecast procedures are "well-established and robust."

Consider how you felt at the moment. The United Kingdom has already left the European Union, but neither the single market nor the customs union. It was days away from "collapsing" due to a lack of agreement on trade arrangements, which appeared to be causing serious economic implications. Kent was bracing for a massive backlog of vehicles, while cross-Channel commerce and supply lines were on the verge of collapsing. The accord needed the UK to accept what we were told no Prime Minister could ever accept - a trading barrier between the British mainland and Northern Ireland - in order to complete the circle on the Northern Irish peace process.

Boris Johnson's understanding of the arrangement he signed, or at least its repercussions, is unknown. Or maybe he did and figured he'd be able to subsequently renounce the parts he didn't like by blaming Brussels. Trying to make that barrier between Cairnryan and Larne's work has taken up a lot of time in 2021, as well as goodwill between the UK and the EU, which was already in low supply. It's still not resolved, and Lord Frost just resigned from his Brexit job, claiming dissatisfaction with the way Brexit is proceeding as well as opposition to COVID's restrictions on individual liberty. His position has been taken up by Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who was outspoken in her criticism of Brexit in 2016. She has since come to terms with it. One of their own is her number two, which should soothe Tory hardliners on Brexit.

COVID has taken away a significant portion of his business; before Omicron, pre-Christmas group bookings were down by more than half, and now they're down to less than a quarter. There has been a lack of housekeeping staff, so the hotel chain has been forced to limit capacity to 70% of rooms during the week and 85% on weekends. Those who remain on the payroll grumble about having to work long hours, overtime, and additional days.

The availability of goods from the EU has been hampered by red tape for small businesses wanting to get products from the EU. EU-based suppliers to the UK who have never exported outside of Europe must now fill out unfamiliar consignment paperwork, and some prefer not to. Some people appear to have exploited Brexit as an excuse to raise prices. However, this reflects global supply chain disruptions, such as sea-going freight and sky-high air cargo charges. It's difficult, if not impossible, to disentangle these issues from Brexit.